ࡱ> zakW7{y3T( zam>_z6;+( +( .  1<http://buzz.research.yahoo.com>http://buzz.research.yahoo.com/$8http://www.shannonbayes.com/8http://www.shannonbayes.com/+| "PowerPoint.Show.80BMicrosoft PowerPoint Presentation/ 0DAriallackmanll{T0DVerdanaackmanll{T0" DTimes New Romanll{T00DWingdingsRomanll{T0@DArial Blackmanll{T0"PDSymbollackmanll{T0 C .  @n?" dd@  @@`` @l, ,4UZ  o!"" `$$r$kW7{y3Ti$$$$r$m>_z6;+iic $0e0e    3f A@  Ao 8c8c     ?1 d0u0@Ty2 NP'p<'pA)BCD|E||s " 0e@        @ABC DEEFGHIJK5%LMNOPQRSTUWYZ[ \]^_ `abN E5%  N E5%  N F   5%    !"?N@ABC DEFFGHIJK5%LMNOPQRSTUWYZ[ \]^_ `ab @8J|H ʚ;#m8ʚ;g4VdVdx T0ppp) <4dddd8!0l`{ <4!d!d8O$0l<4dddd8O$0l9___PPT10 6~___PPT9`X$8http://www.shannonbayes.com/? -O  =jPrediction Markets (PM)eLloyd Nirenberg, Ph.D. Shannon Bayes Venture Corp. Enterprise Resource Management Symposium 25 APR 06*fZ$UzaLloyd Nirenberg, Ph.D.Shannon Bayes Venture Corporation www.shannonbayes.com Dr. Nirenberg is electrical engineer with innovations in communication system design, financial engineering and IP valuation. His IP valuation model applies techniques in financial engineering to managing risk and value in IP transactions, essentially a rational method that arrives at a non-arbitrary valuation of IP which correlates appropriately to its future market value over time based upon its intended use. Dr. Nirenberg currently applies his know-how in technology, economics and competition to help his clients craft strategies for growth in the face of multiple and varied opportunities and risks with particular expertise in analyzing options for the economic use of the patents in patent-dependent markets.P"$J0"6}cQuantitative Social SystemsAuctions-Spectrum Auctions on web; 2-way B2B Mass media poll results on mass media Group breakout at ERM Web enabled feedback Hot or Not Wiki Article ranking What you don t know you don t know<~ #~ #4 What would you like to know?"Sales Forecasts? Market share in Q2? Will product schedule be met? New Product Feature Set Selection? Allocation of manufacturing capacity?t]5What Can We Do to Predict (Forecast) future outcomes? {b Take AwayUse Prediction Markets to roll up information honestly from the people who know Get good predictions of outcomes of important events PM Uses the Wise Crowd Uses market forces to bring together varied bits of information and aggregate them, for predictions or decisions. Groups of people can very effectively solve problems Special conditions for Wise Crowd Diversity of knowledge or experience Decentralization Independence*CC;,Predict the Outcome of Event"Design a Contract to capture a payoff if various Event outcomes occur Open a market to trade contracts until a time before Event will occur Market_Price(t) Et[E] Verified in theory, lab experiments, empirical studiesd 9,9u^. Securitize the EventsP"IConstruct a unit contract Find a counterparty (possibly the market maker)JPJy`Making a Prediction Market4Define an outcome for which you would like a reliable estimate. Invite people with relevant knowledge to trade "virtual" stock based on their confidence in this outcome, thus creating a market The Market Price tracks the consensus opinion (in contrast with the average opinion that a poll would yield). Since the market is online, any number can play anywhere/anytime/anywhere Trading price is decided by the participants themselves and the dynamics of supply and demand. The price is normalized between 0-100 and can be read as a probability estimation. P1PP 'J023PAPM Example-MicrosoftWhen will SW Project actually ship? Create shares for likely months Each online player gets $50 to start trading Highest value share-month is best prediction Result: Best prediction was very different from management meetings estimates-and more accurate Z# 0` !3̙` Q.<ffff3` 3333fff` 3K=̙fff` 3fffff` ff3ff3` aNR>ff` 3fY33` 3f3f>?" dd@&?oAd(@n<)o<6=nA+7%Z', n?" dd@   @@``PR   = 7 ,`(p>> )+ @(     < i #" `j  T Click to edit Master title style! !pB  # _BCE6FGIIQU*VWX @`@$ G"; B0 `B  s *Dg "II  0lr "^   ^*   0 "  ^*   0"H x0Shannon Bayes Venture Corp. www.shannonbayes.com,10 VZ  8   # "hB   s *D" P hB   s *D"W + hB  s *D" W hB  s *D"W  hB  s *D" W+ hB   s *D"W  hB   s *D" W+ hB  s *D"W + D\  8    " 8 2    f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?N 2    f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?N 2    f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?N  2    f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?N 8 2    f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?N 2    f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?N 2    f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?N  2    f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?N 8 \ L a8    "L a8 2    f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?NL a 2    f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?NL a 2    f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?NL a 2    f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?NL a8 D\  8    " 8 2 !   f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?N 2 "   f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?N 2 #   f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?N  2 $   f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?N 8 2 %   f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?N 2 &   f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?N 2 '   f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?N  2 (   f?*d @?"6?@ `NNN?N 8 $ * 0\! 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C2 P(Enterprise Resource Management Symposium.-@"Verdana-. 2 V 25 APR 06e.-՜.+,D՜.+,p    On-screen Show  J  ArialVerdanaTimes New Roman Wingdings Arial BlackSymbolProfile"Microsoft PowerPoint PresentationPrediction Markets (PM)Lloyd Nirenberg, Ph.D.Quantitative Social SystemsWhat would you like to know?6What Can We Do to Predict (Forecast) future outcomes? Take AwayPM Uses the Wise CrowdPredict the Outcome of EventSecuritize the EventsMaking a Prediction MarketPM Example-Microsoft  Fonts UsedDesign TemplateEmbedded OLE Servers Slide Titles DH8 _PID_HLINKS_AdHocReviewCycleID_EmailSubject _AuthorEmail_AuthorEmailDisplayName_ReviewingToolsShownOnceA  http://buzz.research.yahoo.com/http://www.shannonbayes.com/=5#Slides for ERMvenu.nagali@hp.comNagali, Venu (PRM)._0Lloyd Nirenberg, Ph.D.Lloyd Nirenberg, Ph.D.  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~Root EntrydO)PicturesCurrent UserSummaryInformation(WPowerPoint Document(DocumentSummaryInformation8